Generative AI can be economically disruptive through its impact on wage inequality, wealth inequality and potential job displacement. This IPPR report examines what policy's role in the future of AI could be.
The world of knowledge work will be transformed by generative AI and we need to start preparing for this now, according to the report authors. They argue that we are at ‘a sliding doors’ moment when it comes to the impact of AI on the labour market, 'with possibilities for huge job disruption in future or significant GDP gains, depending on government policy'.
The report modelled three scenarios, ‘best, worst and medium’, both for where we are now on AI, and where we might be in the future, depending on policy choices. On where we are now, for instance, a best scenario would mean no job losses and GDP gains of 4% while a worst-case scenario would mean 1.5m jobs lost and no GDP gain. The core message appears to be that ‘a job apocalypse’ is not inevitable, but coordinated action and careful steering from government and leading employers is needed.
The report identifies two key stages of generative AI adoption: the first wave, which is here and now, and a second wave in which companies will integrate existing AI technologies further and more deeply into their processes.
11 per cent of tasks done by workers are already exposed to in the first wave. It identifies ‘routine cognitive’ tasks (such as database management) and ‘organisational and strategic’ tasks (such as scheduling or inventory management) as most exposed to generative AI, which can both read and create text, software code and data.