Leadership

Economic Returns To GCSEs: Region And Disadvantage

This DfE study has revealed that if disadvantaged pupils in all English regions performed as well as disadvantaged pupils in London, this would lead to an overall economic benefit of around £20 billion in present value terms. Leadership Briefing 12.05 (137)

The research presents estimates of the economic value of reducing the disadvantage attainment gap in each region in England, so that it is the same size as the attainment gap in London and improving the attainment of disadvantaged pupils in all regions to the same level as in London.

For each region in England, an ‘attainment gap’ is calculated which represents the difference in attainment between disadvantaged pupils and their peers.

This attainment gap is smaller in London than it is in other regions in England.

Two scenarios are presented. The first scenario calculates the number of extra disadvantaged pupils who would need to improve their GCSE attainment in each region in order to reduce the attainment gap to the same size as it is in London.

The second scenario outlines the number of extra disadvantaged pupils who would need to improve their GCSE attainment in each region in order to match the attainment of disadvantaged pupils in London.

Main Findings:

  • In the academic year 2013/14, a greater percentage of pupils who were not disadvantaged achieved at least five GCSEs at A* -C including English and maths compared to those who were disadvantaged. This was consistent across all regions of England for both boys and girls and is referred to as the attainment gap throughout this publication.
  • The size of the attainment gap is smallest in London at 21 percentage points. In some regions, the attainment gap exceeds 30 percentage points.
  • If the attainment gap in all regions could be reduced to the same size as London, this would lead to an increase of around 125 ,000 disadvantaged pupils achieving the equivalent of five or more GCSES at A* -C including English and maths if effects were replicated for children currently of school age across England.
  • Across the country, if the attainment gap could be reduced to the same size as it is in London, some disadvantaged individuals would increase their lifetime productivity by the equivalent of approximately £110,000 in present value terms for each pupil who improves their attainment. This would lead to an overall economic benefit of around £12 billion in present value terms over the lifetimes of the individuals analysed.
  • Similarly, if disadvantaged pupils in all regions performed as well as disadvantaged pupils in London, this would lead to an overall economic benefit of around £20 billion in present value terms.

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Economic Returns To GCSEs: Region And Disadvantage

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