Leadership

Level 2 and 3 attainment in England: Attainment by age 19 in 2019

This DfE report reveals that two-thirds of learners who did not pass GCSE English and/or maths at 16 do not do so by 19. Just 29 per cent of students who resat GCSE English and/or maths after not achieving a grade 4 in year 11 had passed by the time they were 19 years old, according to the data.

When broken down into the individual subjects, the data shows that 34 per cent passed English by 19, and 24 per cent passed maths.

The condition of funding introduced in 2014-15 means students who have not gained that grade 4 in English and/or maths in secondary school have to resit the qualifications at college.

However, research shows that young people are more likely to gain a degree and less likely to end up not in employment, education or training (Neet) if they have GCSEs in English and maths, compared to their peers who have five GCSEs in other subjects.

The research compared a group of young people who have achieved at least a C at GCSE in both English and maths by age 16 – but who do not have five or more GCSEs at these grades (the English and maths group), with a group of young people who have achieved at least five C grades at GCSE by age 16 – but who do not have either English or maths, or both (the five passes group).

Main Findings:

  • Level 2 attainment at 19 in English & maths increased, as did the progression rate of those achieving this for the first time between 16 and 19, compared with 2005, 2010 and 2018.
  • The overall increase in Level 3 attainment at 19between 2004and 2017 has been mainly driven by a rise in vocational qualification attainment. However, Level 3 attainment at 19 has declined by 1 percentage point since 2017, and this has been driven by a fall in AS level and vocational qualification attainment.
  • The fall in AS levelattainment coincides with the decoupling of AS levels from A levels as part of reforms which started in the 2015/16 academic year. This has resulted in AS results no longer counting towards an Alevel(and AS levels becoming standalone qualifications), which has ledto a reduction in AS level entries.
  • The attainment of Level 2 via vocational qualifications between ages 17 and 19 has remained stable since the reforms, so whilst these large qualifications are mostly no longer being achieved at 16, they are still being achieved post-16.
  • Whilst attainment across all characteristics havefallen (or remained stable) in 2019, all have increased compared with a decade earlier, with thosewho livedin the 25% most deprived areas having experienced the largest rise.
  • *The attainment gaps for gender and those who livedin the 25% most/least deprived areas have widened since last year. However, theSEN/non-SENand FSM/non-FSM gaps have closed.
  • Compared with a decade earlier, the gender and FSM/non-FSM attainment gapshave widened.However, the gaps for SEN/non-SEN and for those who livedin the 25% most/least deprived areas haveclosed, with the gap for the latter narrowingby 6percentage points.
  • In 2019, the non-SEN population were more than twice as likely to have achieved Level 3 than the SEN population.
  • In terms of Level 3 attainment at19by ethnicity, whilst attainment for all ethnicities,apart from for the Chinese population, fell in 2019,allethnicities have had overall increasescompared with a decade earlier, with the blackpopulationhaving experienced the largest rise.
  • For the Chinese population, their attainment was the highest on record in 2019. All other ethnicitiespeaked in 2015 or 2016and have experiencedfalls since.
  • Attainment has consistently been the highest for the Chinese population throughout the decade and consistentlybeenthe lowest for the white population, with the Chinese population being over one and a half times morelikely to have achieved Level 3 in 2019 than thewhite population.
  • Looking at Level 2 attainment at 19 by pupil characteristics, whilst attainment across all characteristics has fallen in 2019, all have increased compared with a decade earlier, withthe population wholivedin the 25% most deprived areas having experienced the largest rise.
  • The attainment gaps across all characteristics have widened since last year.
  • Compared with a decade earlier, the gender and FSM/non-FSM attainmentgaps have widened. However, the gaps forSEN/non-SEN andforthose who livedin the 25% most/leastdeprived areas have closed.
  • In 2019, the non-SEN populationwere more than one and a half times morelikely to have achieved Level 2thantheSEN population.

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